SA(SH:601021) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-13 02:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company has shown resilient ticket prices and stable pre-tax profit performance despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.0 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.7% [1][8]. - The company is expected to continue its operational recovery in 2025, supported by fleet expansion, international route recovery, and improved cost management, which will drive performance upward [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 20.0 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.02 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 0.33 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses year-on-year. For the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 5.32 billion yuan, down 16.4% in net profit to 0.68 billion yuan [1][8]. - The company maintained steady growth in operational metrics, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increasing by 16.1% in 2024 and 6.9% in Q1 2025, while RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) rose by 18.8% and 6.2% respectively [10][16]. Cost Management - The company has optimized cost management, with total operating costs for 2024 reaching 17.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. Fuel costs accounted for 6.14 billion yuan, up 8.9%, while non-fuel costs were 11.27 billion yuan, up 14.1% [2][16]. - The daily aircraft utilization rate improved to 9.30 hours, recovering to 82.7% of the 2019 level, and the unit non-fuel cost per ASK decreased to 0.205 yuan, down 1.71% compared to 2019 [2][16]. Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce 8 new aircraft in 2024 and 5 in 2025, which is expected to support continued growth in performance. The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.58 billion, 3.14 billion, and 3.76 billion yuan respectively, with adjustments reflecting a decrease of 30.8% and 28.3% for 2025 and 2026 [3][18].