lolo(SZ:000848) Huaxin Securities·2025-05-13 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Chengde Lululemon (000848.SZ) [1][10] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival, but cost benefits are gradually emerging. The total revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be 3.287 billion and 666 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [2][10] - The company is expected to continue its steady growth in almond milk products while launching new products that combine with coffee and tea, aiming to capture the health-conscious market [3][10] - The northern region is leading growth, with direct sales channels performing well, particularly through effective online strategies [4][10] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 1.002 billion and 215 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 18% and 13% respectively. The gross margin improved due to lower almond costs, while increased market investment raised expense ratios [2][3] Product Performance - Revenue from almond milk, walnut milk, and almond milk drinks for 2024 were 3.188 billion, 85 million, and 12 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 11.38%, -2.29%, and 248.62% respectively. The main product, almond milk, continues to grow steadily [3][10] Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from the northern, central, and other regions for 2024 were 2.990 billion, 191 million, and 106 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 11.73%, 9.16%, and 2.51% respectively. Direct sales channels showed strong performance, particularly through e-commerce platforms [4][9] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.67, 0.76, and 0.82 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times. The revenue growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 3.3% [10][12]