恒立液压（601100）：工程机械周期反转，丝杠业务打开新增长极

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.39 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit of 2.51 billion, up 0.40% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.42 billion, a 2.56% increase, and a net profit of 618 million, up 2.61% year-on-year [5][8] - The demand in the excavator industry has bottomed out, with the company’s pump and valve products and overseas markets performing better. In 2024, the total sales of excavators in China reached 201,131 units, a 3.13% increase, ending three consecutive years of decline [8] - The company has made breakthroughs in new products and technologies, with its screw rod products entering mass production. The world's largest pile-driving ship cylinder was successfully produced, setting a Guinness World Record [8] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been lowered, and a new forecast for 2027 has been added, with expected net profits of 2.76 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.54 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 10.29 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.6%. The net profit is projected to be 2.76 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 26.76%, down 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 2.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 37 [7]