Apple(US:AAPL) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-13 03:52Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminals like humanoid robots and AI glasses has led to a recovery in the valuation of core suppliers in the supply chain, with expectations for further valuation recovery due to the recent tariff negotiations [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US has suspended 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, with only 10% remaining, indicating that the negative impact of the tariff war on the supply chain is largely mitigated [2] iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are intended to stimulate sales and support supply chain growth [1][3] Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable iPhones is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to an increase in both volume and price for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Valuation Recovery - Despite the initial negative impact of tariff policies, the market is gradually desensitizing to these changes, and core suppliers are expected to experience a clear valuation recovery due to Apple's unexpected global price cuts [4]