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消费电子行业点评：对等关税暂缓消弭短期冲击，iPhone 16降价夯实果链成长弹性
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-13 05:23

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminal technologies, such as humanoid robots and AI glasses, has led to an increase in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of core suppliers, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4] - Recommended core supply chain stocks include Lens Technology, Linyang Technology, Xinwanda, and Pengding Holdings [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Changes - The US has announced a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, with only 10% remaining, effectively neutralizing the short-term impact of the tariff war on the supply chain [2] Section 2: iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are aimed at increasing sales volume and supporting supply chain growth [1][3] Section 3: Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to a rise in ASP for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Section 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the positive developments, the market has not fully recovered to pre-tariff levels, but the recent price cuts and tariff negotiations suggest a potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4]