口子窖（603589）：公司更新报告：兼系列贡献增量，营销动作加码

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.89%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.655 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 1.653 billion yuan, up 9.02%, and net profit was 345 million yuan, down 7.55%. For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 1.810 billion yuan, up 2.42%, with a net profit of 610 million yuan, up 3.59% [1][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and product offerings, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market segments, with the aim of establishing its "Jian Series" as a strategic flagship product [1] - The company has increased its marketing expenditures to support distributors and leverage its brand advantages, which is anticipated to yield positive results over time [1] Financial Summary - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product category shows high-end liquor generating 5.681 billion yuan (up 0.06%), mid-range liquor at 6.8 million yuan (down 10.35%), and low-end liquor at 12.6 million yuan (up 33.01%). For Q1 2025, high-end liquor revenue is 1.728 billion yuan (up 3.53%), mid-range liquor at 2.1 million yuan (down 12.50%), and low-end liquor at 3.9 million yuan (down 9.00%) [1] - The company has seen an increase in the number of distributors, with 502 in the province and 517 outside the province as of 2024, reflecting a strategic focus on both local and regional markets [1] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 74.59%, with a slight decrease in net profit margin to 27.52% [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been slightly adjusted to 1% and 4%, respectively, with net profit growth estimates revised to 2% and 6%. The forecast for 2027 anticipates revenue and net profit growth of 5% and 7%, respectively [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.27 in 2024 to 11.45 by 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [9]