江瀚新材(603281)：24年以量补价 25Q1价格下降利润承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4][35]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 2.216 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 602 million yuan, down 8.03% year-on-year [1][9]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the drop in market prices for functional silanes, despite an increase in sales volume due to capacity expansion from investment projects [2][11]. - The company maintains a high cash dividend payout ratio of 61.67% for 2024, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit of 761 million yuan, a decrease of 94 million yuan year-on-year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 34.3%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [22]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 492 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.20%, and a net profit of 97 million yuan, down 37.39% year-on-year [10][22]. - The company’s cost management remains strong, with a low expense ratio of 3.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [29]. Business Development and Capacity Expansion - The company is investing 1 billion yuan in a comprehensive silicon-based new materials project, aiming to achieve an annual production capacity of 182,000 tons of functional silanes by the end of 2026 [3][33]. - A new project for functional new materials silicon-based precursors is being initiated with an investment of 430 million yuan, expected to produce 10,000 tons of optical fiber-grade silicon tetrachloride and 5,000 tons of electronic-grade ethyl silicate by October 2027 [3][34]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 562 million yuan, 640 million yuan, and 731 million yuan respectively [35].