高盛：中国经济-因关税降幅超预期上调 GDP 预测

13 May 2025 | 5:53PM HKT China: Raising GDP forecasts on larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks Bottom line: We had assumed that the US-China trade talks in Geneva would reduce tariff rates on Chinese products from >100% to 50-60%. The joint announcement released on Monday (May 12) indicated larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30% for 90 days. Although the forward path of tariffs remains uncertain, we now expect Chinese real exports to be roughly flat in 2025/2 ...