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中汽股份(301215):AEBS强标征求意见,二期试验场投产贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][14]. Core Insights - The recent proposal by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to upgrade the Automatic Emergency Braking System (AEBS) from a recommended standard to a mandatory requirement indicates a countdown to large-scale implementation in the Chinese automotive market, which is expected to benefit the company significantly [5][6]. - The company has established the first large-scale closed intelligent connected vehicle testing ground in China, which is anticipated to enhance revenue through increased testing and certification demands from automotive manufacturers as new standards are implemented [6][7]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 0.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 0.29 billion yuan, up 23.9% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 61.5%, reflecting a slight decrease of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased depreciation costs from the new testing facility [7]. - The company projects revenues of 5.21 billion yuan, 6.39 billion yuan, and 7.41 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.05 billion yuan, 2.63 billion yuan, and 3.25 billion yuan for the same years [8][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of its second intelligent connected vehicle testing facility, which is projected to provide substantial growth momentum over the next three years as more intelligent vehicle standards are implemented [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.15 yuan in 2025 to 0.25 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [8][10].