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甘李药业(603087):2024年报、2025年一季报点评:国内外双轮驱动,创新管线有序推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of 1.91, 2.40, and 2.84 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 59.21 yuan based on a 31x PE valuation for 2025 [2] - The company reported a revenue of 30.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, and a net profit of 6.1 billion yuan, up 80.8% [10] - The company’s Q1 2025 revenue reached 9.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 75.8%, with a net profit of 3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable growth of 224.9% [10] - The domestic formulation business is experiencing rapid growth driven by both volume and price increases, with domestic formulation revenue in Q1 2025 at 8.6 billion yuan, up 80.9% [10] - The company’s international sales revenue in Q1 2025 was 0.95 billion yuan, an increase of 45.2%, indicating strong overseas order growth [10] - The company has made progress in its innovative product pipeline, with ongoing clinical trials for its new drug GZR18 and successful entry into international markets for its insulin products [10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,608 million yuan in 2023, 3,045 million yuan in 2024, 4,202 million yuan in 2025, 5,181 million yuan in 2026, and 6,115 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 52.3%, 16.8%, 38.0%, 23.3%, and 18.0% [4] - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 340 million yuan in 2023 to 1,709 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 177.4%, 80.7%, 87.1%, 25.6%, and 18.3% [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 73.3% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 13.0% to 27.9% over the same period [4] - The company’s PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 90.1 in 2023 to 17.9 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation [4]