舍得酒业（600702）：更新报告：短期业绩承压，股权激励提振信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a focus on the recovery of government and business consumption demand [1] - The company is committed to its old liquor strategy while promoting multi-brand, youth-oriented, and international strategies [3] - The stock option incentive plan aims to boost confidence among executives and is linked to ambitious revenue and profit growth targets [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's white liquor revenue was 1.442 billion yuan, down 26.5% year-on-year, attributed to channel inventory digestion [1] - Gross margin and net margin decreased by 4.8 and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year to 69.4% and 21.9%, respectively [1] - The company reported a cash flow from sales of 1.623 billion yuan, a decrease of 15%, while operating net cash flow increased by 107% to 224 million yuan [1] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to grow at rates of 5.7%, 6.2%, and 8.4%, respectively, with net profit growth rates adjusted to 165%, 25%, and 10% [4] Product and Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 1.234 billion yuan and 208 million yuan, down 28.46% and 12.59% year-on-year, respectively [1][2] - E-commerce revenue grew by 37% year-on-year, indicating a rapid development in this channel [2] - The company’s revenue from Sichuan province was 494 million yuan, down 8.96%, while revenue from outside the province was 949 million yuan, down 33.25% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its production system through intelligent upgrades and expanding its capacity while improving the quality of old liquor [3] - The stock option incentive plan involves granting up to 2.0366 million restricted shares to 168 executives at a price of 28.78 yuan per share, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth [3]