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天合光能(688599):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:组件出货稳步增长,多业务共同发展可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.1 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in component shipments, with a target of 70-75 GW for 2025, while balancing volume and profitability [5]. - The company has faced significant challenges in 2024, with a revenue decline of 29.2% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of 3.44 billion CNY [5]. - The report highlights the company's focus on technological advancements, including the development of high-efficiency N-type bifacial i-TOPCon batteries and perovskite/silicon tandem cells [5]. - The diversification of business operations, including energy storage and photovoltaic support structures, is seen as a strategy to enhance overall competitiveness [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 80.28 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 29.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -3.44 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2026 and 2027 [4]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is forecasted at 9.59%, down 6.26 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -1.58 CNY for 2024, improving to 0.85 CNY by 2026 [4]. Business Development - The company achieved over 70 GW in component shipments in 2024, with 64.5 GW exported, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [5]. - The energy storage segment shipped 4.3 GWh in 2024, with expectations for rapid growth in 2025 as the company expands its market reach [5]. - The company is establishing a smart tracking manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia, aiming to secure a larger share of the global market [5].