诺诚健华（688428）：1Q25业绩略好于预期，全年奥布替尼收入指引上调5%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the Hong Kong stock and a "Hold" rating for the A-share, with target prices set at HKD 11.7 and CNY 19.6 respectively [5][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 381 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 129.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.3% [2][3]. - The revenue from the drug Oubatinib was RMB 311 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 89.2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2% [2][3]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance for Oubatinib from 30% to 35% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in exclusive indications and market share gains [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 17.97 million, which is an improvement compared to previous losses, primarily due to better-than-expected revenue and lower sales and administrative expenses [2][3]. - The gross margin for product sales improved to 88.4%, up from 85.3% in Q1 2024 and 87% in Q4 2024 [2][3]. - The company expects significant contributions from the MZL indication to Oubatinib's overall revenue, increasing from 30% in 2024 to 50% in 2025 [3][12]. Research and Development Progress - The company is advancing two TYK2 inhibitors, with CP-332 in Phase III clinical trials for AD and CP-448 in Phase III for psoriasis, both expected to complete patient enrollment in 2025 [4][12]. - Key upcoming R&D catalysts include new indication approvals and important data readouts for Oubatinib and other drugs [4][12]. Market Expectations - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 20.066 billion, with a recent average trading volume of HKD 121 million over the past three months [5][12]. - The stock price has ranged between HKD 4.2 and HKD 11.0 over the past 52 weeks, with the current price at HKD 9.5, indicating a potential upside of 23% to the target price [5][12].