关税预期的分歧与修正

Report Information - Report Title: "Tariff Expectation Divergence and Correction" - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Type: China Mainland Asset Allocation Weekly Report - Research Institution: Huatai Research [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks have made substantial progress, with the overall tariff reduction exceeding market expectations. Different markets and assets are correcting their tariff expectations. In the short term, the stabilization of fundamental expectations and the repair of risk appetite drive major asset classes, and there are opportunities for previously oversold varieties to make up for losses. China and other non - US countries are back on the same starting line regarding reciprocal tariffs, and the relative value of Chinese assets may be repaired. In the long run, tariff prospects remain uncertain, and the global order reconstruction may continue. Key long - term themes include de - dollarization, diversified global capital allocation, RMB appreciation, and a decline in global aggregate demand. [2] - The short - term positive impact on the fundamentals is clear, but medium - term uncertainties remain. The risk appetite at home and abroad has recovered and is reflected in prices. Different assets have different implied expectations, which determine the repair space and potential trading opportunities. [3] Market Condition Assessment Domestic - The implementation of double cuts (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts) and the easing of Sino - US tariffs improve the export and economic growth expectations for the second quarter. High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has cooled, while there are positive signals in consumption. The production performance is divided, and prices of some commodities are affected by supply - side factors. [4][46] - In terms of monetary policy, double cuts have been implemented, and a new round of deposit rate cuts is imminent. The central bank has launched a package of monetary policies. In terms of fiscal policy, the direction of loose money is confirmed, and more active fiscal policies are expected, but the urgency of fiscal stimulus has decreased after the tariff easing. [4][47] - Last week, real estate policies continued to boost demand, including lowering personal housing provident fund loan interest rates and introducing measures in Wuhan to support housing purchases. [48] Overseas - US economic data is mixed, and economic uncertainty is rising. After the Sino - US tariff easing, the probability of a US economic recession has decreased. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the inflation effect of tariffs is expected to appear in the next two months. [46] Asset - Specific Analysis Stocks - A - shares: The A - share market filled the gap last week but still lags behind some international stock indices. There is still value in domestic equity assets. The market shows structural differentiation, with defensive sectors outperforming in the early stage, and attention should be paid to the repair opportunities of technology - growth sectors and the export chain. [16][20] - US stocks: The US stock market may have over - reacted to the tariff shock. The technology - growth sectors are leading the rise in the short term, but the market may face risks such as policy chaos and a decline in corporate earnings in the long term. [22][44] Commodities - Commodities previously showed "recession trading" characteristics. With the improvement of demand expectations, there are trading opportunities for oversold commodities such as crude oil and black - series products. Gold may face short - term headwinds but remains a good hedge against tail risks in the long term. [24][45] Bonds - The global bond market has priced in a pessimistic economic outlook since April. After the tariff easing, bond yields may face upward pressure, but a trend reversal is unlikely. It is recommended to focus on short - term bonds and look for opportunities in long - term bonds during adjustments. [31][44] Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded, while the RMB is strong against the US dollar and may still have room to appreciate against a basket of currencies. [34] Configuration Suggestions - In general, the short - term impact of tariff easing on the market has been largely priced in. Most assets lack clear value - for - money and direction, and new variables are needed. [43] - Domestic Bond Market: The bond market may face short - term pressure, but the probability of hitting new lows is low. It is recommended to focus on medium - and short - term bonds with positive carry and look for opportunities to increase long - term bond holdings during adjustments. [43] - Domestic Stock Market: The negotiation results boost short - term risk appetite and second - quarter performance expectations, but a sustainable market trend is difficult to form. Focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as pan - technology and domestic substitution, and the export sector may recover. [43] - US Bonds: The probability of a US economic recession has decreased, and the odds of 10 - year US bonds have improved. However, they will face inflation and supply pressure in the next quarter. It is recommended to use short - term bonds as the bottom position and conduct long - term bond trading in a band - trading manner. [44] - US Stocks: The short - term market is optimistic, but the upward momentum may weaken after the release of tariff - easing benefits. In the long term, the US stock market may face risks such as a decline in corporate earnings. [44] - Commodities: Industrial commodities are better than gold in the short term. There are trading opportunities for previously fallen commodities, but the upside space is limited. Gold can hedge against tail risks and should be traded according to the trend. [45] Follow - up Concerns Domestic - China's April social消费品零售总额 year - on - year, April industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, one - year loan prime rate as of May 20, monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities, and the press conference on national economic operation. [61] Overseas - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, April retail sales month - on - month, April PPI, May New York Fed manufacturing index, May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May one - year inflation expectation preliminary value, May University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, and April CPI annual rate final value. [61]