Wellhope(SH:603609) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-15 02:05Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a high-quality enterprise with an integrated feed, breeding, and slaughter industry chain, having deep roots in the livestock industry for nearly thirty years [1][15]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in market share, with projected net profits of 4.35 billion, 4.78 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][30]. Company Overview - The company has three core business segments: feed, poultry industry, and pig breeding. In 2024, it achieved feed sales of 3.96 million tons, with a national market share of 1.3% and revenue of 12.509 billion yuan, accounting for 39% of total revenue [1][15]. - The poultry business has a slaughter capacity exceeding 1.1 billion birds annually, with a revenue of 11.34 billion yuan in 2024, representing 35% of total revenue [1][15]. - The pig breeding segment is expected to have a total output of 1.4 million pigs in 2024, generating revenue of 3.318 billion yuan, which accounts for 10% of total revenue [1][15]. Industry Analysis - The feed industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of livestock inventory, with a projected increase in pig and poultry feed sales in 2025 [2][46]. - The poultry industry is seeing a trend of vertical integration, with a positive outlook for consumption growth in the medium to long term [2][46]. - The pig industry is focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises, with significant market share growth potential for quality companies [2][46]. Company Highlights - The company has a significant geographical advantage and a comprehensive development of the feed, breeding, and slaughter industry chain [3][15]. - The feed business has a well-established product matrix and is steadily expanding production capacity [3][15]. - The poultry industry has a complete supply chain, with strong upstream and downstream collaboration, benefiting from rich local feed resources and a mature market sales system [3][15]. - The pig breeding business is expanding through a light-asset model, focusing on "controlling scale and improving quality," effectively collaborating with the feed segment [3][15]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is one of the leading large-scale feed, poultry, and pig breeding and slaughter processing enterprises in China, with a projected reasonable valuation range of 9.60 to 10.36 yuan per share, indicating a premium of approximately 13-22% relative to the current price [3][30].