Longi(601012) Huaan Securities·2025-05-15 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longi Green Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.618 billion yuan in 2024, falling within the forecast range, with a revenue of 82.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36% [4][5] - The company adopted a "volume control for profit" strategy in 2024 due to intense price competition in the photovoltaic industry, resulting in a significant drop in prices across the supply chain [5] - Looking ahead, the company is expected to see a recovery in 2025 with the release of its BC products, projecting revenues of 67.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1% [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 825.82 billion yuan and a net profit of -86.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 7.4% [8] - For 2025, the expected revenue is 676 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of -24 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with net profits of 19 billion yuan and 46 billion yuan respectively [6][8] - The company's asset-liability ratio is expected to remain below 60%, indicating a stable financial position [5] Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant increase in production, with polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules all seeing over 10% year-on-year growth in 2024, despite a decline in prices [5] - The company is focusing on high-value HPBC products, which are expected to lead the market, with ongoing upgrades to its production lines [5][6]