BRIGHT DAIRY(600597) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-15 03:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance is under pressure due to weak demand in 2024, but there is potential for marginal improvement in 2025 [1][6] - The company is expected to face challenges in the short term due to a competitive environment and declining liquid milk demand, but it maintains a strong market position in the low-temperature fresh milk segment [7][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 24,278 million, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 722 million, down 25.4% year-on-year [6][9] - For 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of 24,667 million, with a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 336 million, reflecting a significant decline of 53.4% year-on-year [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24, with a projected gross margin of 19.4% [6][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve gradually from 1.5% in 2025 to 5.6% by 2027 [6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from dairy products, livestock, and others is expected to be 219.57 billion, 10.23 billion, and 11.77 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.56%, -41.74%, and -14.98% [7] - The liquid milk segment is projected to generate 141.66 billion in revenue, down 9.47% year-on-year, while other dairy products are expected to grow by 5.87% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product development around nutrition and health, enhancing its market position through both online and offline marketing strategies [7] - The report highlights the company's efforts to maintain its leading position in the market despite competitive pressures, with expectations of improved revenue and profit as the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk market stabilizes [7]