博汇纸业2024A&2025Q1点评：盈利环比上行，期待内需修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 1.893 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1% for revenue and a decrease of 3% for net profit [3][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate total revenue of 496.3 million, with a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 90% year-on-year [3][6]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to be 456.4 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 47% year-on-year [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total sales volume of 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average gross profit per ton of 398 RMB, a decrease of approximately 69 RMB [9]. - The revenue from white cardboard is projected to be 11.542 billion RMB, with a sales volume of 2.9 million tons, and an average price of 3,987 RMB per ton, reflecting a 7% decrease [9]. - Cultural paper revenue is expected to reach 4.741 billion RMB, with a sales volume of 980,000 tons, and an average price of 4,848 RMB per ton, showing an 11.7% increase [9]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in production and sales, with demand recovery expected to drive paper prices and profitability upward [9]. - The overseas sales revenue is projected to see significant growth, with the export revenue share increasing to 16%, effectively hedging against domestic cyclical fluctuations [9]. - The company is focusing on developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation to enhance market responsiveness [9]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 300 million, 430 million, and 520 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 20, 14, and 12 times [9].