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高通(QCOM.US):短期关税影响不显著,注重长期成长逻辑
QCOMQualcomm(QCOM) 浦银国际·2025-05-15 05:21

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.US) with a target price of 178.3,indicatingapotentialupsideof17.8178.3, indicating a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of 151.34 [1][5]. Core Views - Qualcomm's smartphone shipment forecast remains largely unchanged, with minimal impact from current tariffs and limited pre-purchase behavior from customers [1]. - For FY3Q25, Qualcomm expects smartphone revenue to grow by 10% year-over-year, driven by increased shipments of high-end Android phones and rising average selling prices [1]. - Automotive revenue is projected to increase by 20% year-over-year, benefiting from high adoption rates of smart cockpit technology in new energy vehicles in China [1]. - Internet of Things (IoT) revenue is anticipated to grow by 15%, supported by gains in high-end personal computers, industrial IoT growth, and surging demand for edge AI [1]. - Long-term growth potential in non-mobile business segments is significant, with expectations that non-mobile revenue will reach 22billionby2029[1].QualcommsforwardP/Eratioiscurrentlyat12.7x,downfrom15xatthebeginningoftheyear,makingitanattractiveinvestmentopportunity[1].FinancialPerformanceandForecastInFY2Q25,Qualcommreportedrevenueof22 billion by 2029 [1]. - Qualcomm's forward P/E ratio is currently at 12.7x, down from 15x at the beginning of the year, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In FY2Q25, Qualcomm reported revenue of 10.98 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, but a 6% decrease quarter-over-quarter, exceeding market expectations [2][10]. - Gross margin for FY2Q25 was 55.0%, slightly down from the previous year and quarter, primarily due to changes in product mix [2][10]. - Operating profit and net profit for FY2Q25 were 3.12billion(up333.12 billion (up 33% year-over-year) and 2.81 billion (up 21% year-over-year), respectively, both slightly above market expectations [2][10]. - The guidance for FY3Q25 indicates a median revenue of 10.3billion,representinga1010.3 billion, representing a 10% year-over-year growth [2]. - The financial projections for FY2025 and FY2026 have been slightly adjusted based on FY2Q25 performance and FY3Q25 outlook [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a growth rate of 12% for FY2030-FY2034 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, with a WACC of 13.8% [3]. - The adjusted target price of 178.3 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.4x for FY2025 [3].