Richful(300910) 东北证券·2025-05-15 06:36Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic player in the lubricant additive industry, with a strong focus on fine chemical materials, including lubricant additives and carbonless paper color developers. It has developed into a global leader in lubricant additives, with a production capacity of 315,000 tons for single additives and 100,000 tons for carbonless paper color developers by the end of 2024 [1][16]. - The global lubricant additive market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with a market size of approximately 15.99 billion USD in 2023, projected to reach 18.21 billion USD by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 1.9%. The domestic market is also expected to see steady growth due to the increasing number of motor vehicles and industrialization [2][60]. - The company is transitioning from single additives to composite additives, aiming for over 60% of revenue from composite additives and over 70% from overseas markets by 2024, thereby capturing a larger share of the global market [3][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in fine chemical materials since its establishment in 1996, becoming a major supplier of carbonless paper color developers and lubricant additives. It has a strong technical and product advantage, leading to significant growth in both domestic and international markets [1][16][27]. Market Analysis - The global lubricant additive market is maturing, with a total consumption of 5.43 million tons in 2023. The domestic market's apparent consumption reached 970,800 tons, with a CAGR of 2.2% from 2015 to 2023. The domestic self-sufficiency rate for lubricant additives has significantly improved, with imports declining by approximately 38% from their peak in 2021 [2][71][72]. Product Development and Strategy - The company has obtained 47 domestic and 2 foreign invention patents, showcasing its strong R&D capabilities. It is actively pursuing high-end certifications and transitioning to composite additives, which are expected to account for a significant portion of its revenue in the coming years [3][44][45]. - The company’s revenue from lubricant additives is projected to reach 3.073 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, while revenue from carbonless paper color developers has declined [30][32]. Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.73% from 2016 to 2022. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 34 million CNY in 2016 to 588 million CNY in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 60.82% [30][31]. - The company’s operating cash flow has also improved significantly, increasing from 39 million CNY in 2016 to 436 million CNY in 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [50][52]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 886 million CNY, 1.057 billion CNY, and 1.25 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 19X, 16X, and 14X [3][10].