TC Medical(600763) Haitong Securities International·2025-05-15 07:34Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 46.67, compared to the current price of RMB 40.13 [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 2.87 billion (+0.96%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 501 million (+0.20%). The recurring net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 496 million (+3.18%) [8]. - The company is adjusting its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 1.26 and RMB 1.36, respectively, and adding a forecast for 2027 of RMB 1.49. The 2025 PE is set at 37X [8]. - The dental implant segment shows strong performance, while orthodontics is under short-term pressure due to consumption downgrade. By the end of 2024, the company will have over 260,000 sqm of medical service area and 3.53 million outpatient visits [8]. - The company has completed five major dental clusters in Zhejiang province and is expanding its "regional main hospital + branch" model [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit projections for the coming years are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue of RMB 2.85 billion, Net Profit of RMB 500 million - 2024A: Revenue of RMB 2.87 billion, Net Profit of RMB 501 million - 2025E: Revenue of RMB 3.00 billion, Net Profit of RMB 564 million - 2026E: Revenue of RMB 3.20 billion, Net Profit of RMB 609 million - 2027E: Revenue of RMB 3.40 billion, Net Profit of RMB 665 million [4][5]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be around 12.9% for 2025 and 13.0% for 2027 [5]. Business Expansion Strategy - The company is shifting its provincial expansion strategy from traditional self-built models to a combination of acquisitions and asset-light franchising, aiming for a national network at lower costs and higher efficiency [8]. - The company has opened 44 Dandelion branches in 2024, with 60% achieving break-even, and plans to open additional branches in 2025 [8].