鸿路钢构（002541）：一季度业绩超预期，经营拐点或现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, indicating a potential operational turning point. Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, a decline of 32.78% [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in production volume and new sales contracts, suggesting a recovery in demand. The production volume for steel structure products was approximately 1.0491 million tons, up 14.29% year-on-year, and the total new sales contracts signed amounted to about 7.052 billion yuan, a 1.25% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes a decrease in gross margin due to falling steel prices, with a gross margin of 9.83% in Q1 2025, down 0.76 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan per ton, a 14% decline year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has scaled up the use of welding robots, which is expected to reduce costs. Nearly 2,000 welding robots have been deployed across its production bases, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [7][8]. - Future earnings are projected to improve, with expected EPS of 1.30, 1.51, and 1.75 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 11x [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 21.514 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.837 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 772 million yuan in 2024 to 1.207 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.7% [3][8]. - The company's current price is 19.93 yuan, with a target price set at 25.97 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3][4].