TBEA(600089) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-15 08:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][31]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in coal production, gradual reduction in losses from the polysilicon business, and sustained investment in the power grid, leading to an adjusted profit forecast of 6.2 billion yuan for 2025, with new profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 7.8 billion and 9.4 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 49.8%, 25.9%, and 20.6% [4][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year. The overall gross margin was 20.6%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.1%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 97.87 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.13 billion yuan, down 61% year-on-year, primarily due to significant losses in the polysilicon business [9][30]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from various segments in 2024 included: - Power transmission and transformation products: 42.99 billion yuan (+16% year-on-year) - New energy products and engineering: 18.53 billion yuan (-34% year-on-year) - Coal: 19.26 billion yuan (+6% year-on-year) - Power generation: 5.6 billion yuan (+31% year-on-year) - New materials: 5.61 billion yuan (+8% year-on-year) [2][20]. - The polysilicon business faced significant pressure, with prices dropping below production costs, leading to a production volume of 198,800 tons (+4% year-on-year) and a sales volume of 199,200 tons (-2% year-on-year) in 2024 [3][21]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 105 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross margin projected to improve to 20% [27][31]. - The coal production is anticipated to steadily increase, reaching 120 million tons by 2026, significantly boosting revenue from the coal business [28][31].