LIHUA(300761) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-15 08:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's continuous improvement in breeding costs and long-term development. It anticipates that the company's profitability will continue to enhance with the gradual recovery of terminal consumption, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan and 2 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and recommends it as a key investment [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.52 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, a significant increase of 157% year-on-year [4][5]. Breeding Cost and Profitability - The company has seen a continuous decline in breeding costs since 2024, leading to a rapid improvement in overall profitability. The yellow feather chicken breeding cost decreased by 14.4% year-on-year to approximately 11.7 yuan/kg, while the sales price averaged around 12.9 yuan/kg, down 5.6% year-on-year. The yellow feather chicken segment is expected to achieve a profit of about 1.35 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10]. - For the pig breeding segment, the company sold 1.298 million pigs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 51.8%. The sales price for pigs was 17.3 yuan/kg, up 14.7% year-on-year, with a breeding cost of approximately 14.8 yuan/kg, down 17.5% year-on-year. The pig breeding segment is projected to generate a profit of about 385 million yuan in 2024 [9][11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain good profitability in both the yellow feather chicken and pig breeding segments in 2025. The yellow feather chicken prices are anticipated to improve in Q2 2025, and the company expects to sell around 2 million pigs in 2025, benefiting from improved production efficiency and cost reductions [9][10].