HEILAN HOME(600398)2025-05-15 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to gradually realize its multi-channel growth potential, with strong performance in new business areas such as JD Outlet, which has high profitability and significant expansion space. The company is also benefiting from e-commerce, overseas expansion, and the integration of the Sboz brand, which is anticipated to contribute to substantial revenue growth. The company has a solid dividend capability, with a projected payout ratio of around 90% in recent years. The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.53 billion, 3.02 billion, and 3.73 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 19%, and 23%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 15, 13, and 10, with a dividend yield of approximately 5.9% in 2025 under the 90% payout assumption [2][4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue and net profit are projected to be 20.96 billion and 2.16 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3% and 27%. In Q4 2024, revenue and net profit are expected to be 5.70 billion and 0.25 billion, showing a decline of 4% and 50% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are anticipated to be 6.19 billion and 0.94 billion, with year-on-year growth of 0.2% and 5.5%. The overall performance for both 2024 and Q1 2025 exceeded expectations. The dividend for 2024 is projected at 1.97 billion, maintaining a high payout ratio of 91% [4][10]. Business Segment Analysis - The main brand's offline retail performance is expected to gradually improve, with the new JD Outlet business showing strong sales efficiency and profitability. The e-commerce segment, particularly the Sboz brand, is expected to continue its upward trend, contributing positively to overall revenue. The group purchasing business is also showing robust growth, with Q4 2024 revenue increasing by 27% year-on-year [2][10]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q4 2024, the overall gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 4.4%. For Q1 2025, the net profit margin is expected to recover to 15.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points. The increase in operating expenses in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the rise in sales and promotional costs associated with the expansion of direct stores [10]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a high-quality alpha stock within the current market environment, with multiple growth avenues expected to yield strong incremental revenue. The anticipated strong performance in the coming years, coupled with a high dividend payout ratio, makes it an attractive investment opportunity [2][4].