东兴证券晨报-20250515

Core Insights - The mechanical sector underperformed in 2024 but showed strong recovery in 2025, with the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 10.44% in early 2025, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index by 10.43 and 12.52 percentage points respectively [2][3] - The mechanical industry reported a revenue of 1,999.57 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.28% to 86.36 billion yuan [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the mechanical sector's revenue reached 454.01 billion yuan, up 11.23% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 30.03% to 27.50 billion yuan, marking the highest absolute value since Q1 2021 [3][4] Industry Segmentation - Within the mechanical sector, semiconductor equipment (39.08%), photovoltaic processing equipment (29.60%), and motorcycles (17.85%) showed the highest revenue growth in 2024 [4] - The highest net profit growth in 2024 was seen in motorcycles (59.02%), semiconductor equipment (42.38%), and textile and apparel equipment (33.94%) [4] - In Q1 2025, the fastest revenue growth was again in semiconductor equipment (33.38%) and motorcycles (30.74%), while the highest net profit growth was in marine equipment (351.08%) and rail transit equipment (104.73%) [4] Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a focus on more proactive fiscal policies and new productivity layouts, with a projected issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to stimulate engineering machinery sales [5][7] - The government aims to accelerate the progress of new projects, which is expected to boost demand for engineering machinery [5][7] - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a growing sector, with predictions of significant growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL aircraft by 2035, potentially reaching a market size of 5.7 trillion yuan [8] Company Performance - Guoxuan High-Tech reported a revenue of 35.39 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, up 28.6% [9][10] - The company achieved a total output of approximately 63 GWh in power and energy storage batteries in 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [10][11] - Guoxuan High-Tech's gross margin for energy storage batteries improved to 21.8%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from new productivity and fiscal policies, particularly in the engineering machinery and low-altitude economy sectors [5][8] - Companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG are identified as potential beneficiaries of increased infrastructure investment [7] - The financial technology sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, driven by increased IT investments from financial institutions [25][26]