HONGLU(002541) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-15 10:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, indicating a potential operational turning point. Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, down 32.78% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 31.27% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company signed new sales contracts worth approximately 7.052 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 1.25% year-on-year increase, alongside a significant production increase of 14.29% to approximately 1.049 million tons [7][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross margin to 9.83%, down 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to falling steel prices, with the average price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai at 3,400 yuan per ton, a 14% decline year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has scaled up the use of welding robots, which is expected to reduce costs. Nearly 2,000 welding robots have been deployed across its production bases, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [7][8]. - Future earnings are projected to improve, with expected EPS of 1.30, 1.51, and 1.75 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 11x [7][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 21.514 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.837 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 772 million yuan in 2024 to 1.207 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.7% [3][8]. - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 25.241 billion yuan in 2024 to 32.543 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a solid growth trajectory [8].