BYIS(SH:600581) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-05-15 11:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [11][19]. Core Views - The steel demand remains weak, putting short-term pressure on the company's performance, but there is optimism for improvement in the industry supply-demand dynamics, indicating significant potential for performance recovery [3][11]. - The company has a strong geographical advantage as the largest steel enterprise in Xinjiang, which is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of the "Belt and Road" initiative [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 22,971 million, projected to decrease to 18,669 million in 2024, with a subsequent recovery to 19,222 million in 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -1,163 million in 2023, expected to worsen to -1,752 million in 2024, before turning positive at 504 million in 2025 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to recover from -0.76 in 2023 to 0.33 in 2025 [5]. Market Data - The target price for the company is set at 3.79 [2][11]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 5,062 million [6]. Production and Sales Outlook - In 2024, the company is expected to produce and sell 493 and 497 million tons of steel, respectively, reflecting a decline of 11.37% and 12.06% year-on-year [11]. - The company is adjusting its product mix to mitigate risks associated with declining construction material profitability due to the downturn in the real estate sector [11]. Industry Context - The report highlights that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to gradually diminish, leading to stabilization in steel demand [11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's plan to regulate crude steel production by 2025 is anticipated to enhance profitability through industry consolidation [11].