TBEA(600089) 国信证券·2025-05-15 12:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][31]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady progress in its power transmission and transformation, as well as energy businesses, while the profitability of its polysilicon segment is under pressure [1][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 978.7 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, with a significant decline in net profit due to substantial losses in the polysilicon business [1][9]. - The report anticipates a gradual reduction in losses from the polysilicon business and a steady increase in coal production, leading to an adjusted profit forecast of 62.0 billion yuan for 2025, with further increases expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 23.38 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year [1][9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.1%, a decrease of 9.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.7%, down 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. Business Segments - The revenue from the power transmission and transformation segment reached 429.9 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 16% year-on-year, while the polysilicon segment saw a revenue decline of 34% to 185.3 billion yuan [2][20]. - The company’s polysilicon production in 2024 was 198,800 tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, but the average selling price dropped to 39,000 yuan per ton, down 5.7 thousand yuan per ton year-on-year [3][21]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the ongoing expansion in the overseas market for power transmission products, with a significant increase in export contracts, which reached 1.2 billion USD in 2024, up over 70% year-on-year [2][20]. - The coal production for 2024 exceeded 74 million tons, with over 25% of sales coming from outside the region, indicating a strong market presence [24][27]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 90.99 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with net profits projected to rise to 62.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.8% [5][30]. - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026 and 2027, estimating net profits of 78.0 billion yuan and 94.1 billion yuan, respectively, indicating continued growth [4][31].