Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: May 15, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Silicon manganese maintains a trend of production - cut pricing. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, supply still exceeds demand due to weak downstream demand. There is still high - inventory pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as many short - sellers take profits and leave the market. Silicon iron increased production this week, with inventory reduction and an increase in warrant registration. Although high hot metal in downstream demand still provides some support, the high - inventory pattern of ferroalloys remains unchanged. With the cooling of macro - optimistic sentiment in the short term, ferroalloys are expected to show bottom - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 6.9% - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 27.9% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High hot metal supports the demand for silicon iron - After continuous decline, low - valued silicon iron may rebound - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment - Silicon iron factory inventory decreased by 11.8% compared with the previous period [7] Silicon Manganese - Decline in开工率 and production, with increased losses of producers recently, strengthening the willingness to cut production and some areas having shutdown for maintenance - Strict government control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment [7] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production increased by 3.9% this week, and warrants increased by 7.77% compared with the previous period - High inventory level of silicon iron suppresses prices as market demand recovery lags behind supply growth [12] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese factory inventory continued to accumulate, with a 13.9% increase compared with the previous period as of May 11 - High factory inventory combined with high warrants increases the total inventory, suppressing price increases due to oversupply [12] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 114, with a daily - on - daily change of - 104 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 146; the 01 - 05 spread was 82, with a daily - on - daily change of 18 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 05 - 09 spread was - 32, with a daily - on - daily change of - 8 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 6; the 09 - 01 spread was - 50, with a daily - on - daily change of - 10 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 6 - Silicon iron spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 19189, with a daily - on - daily increase of 141 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 161 [10] Silicon Manganese - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 64, with a daily - on - daily change of - 78 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 184; the 01 - 05 spread was 128, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 24; the 05 - 09 spread was - 74, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 09 - 01 spread was - 54, with a daily - on - daily change of 4 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 24 - Silicon manganese spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 118553, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 140 and a weekly - on - weekly decrease of 1621 [11]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250515