东海证券晨会纪要-20250516

Group 1 - The report highlights that the company "老百姓" (603883) is focusing on its advantageous regions, with expectations for performance to gradually stabilize and improve [5][6][8] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 22.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 519 million yuan, down 44.13% year-on-year [5][6] - The company experienced short-term performance decline due to factors such as losses from new store openings, store closures, and increased depreciation expenses [5][6][7] Group 2 - The retail business generated revenue of 19.107 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.25%, while the franchise, alliance, and distribution business saw revenue of 3.105 billion yuan, an increase of 5.92% [6][7] - The company is expanding its new retail ecosystem, with online sales reaching approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 24% [6][7] - The company has increased its store count to 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.55% [8] Group 3 - The report indicates that the company is leveraging opportunities in lower-tier markets, with 80% of new stores in 2024 located in cities at the prefecture level and below [8] - The company plans to continue focusing on advantageous markets and accelerate the acquisition of existing market share, aiming to capitalize on industry consolidation opportunities [8] - The investment forecast for the company has been adjusted downwards for 2025 and 2026, with expected net profits of 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan for 2025 to 2027 [8] Group 4 - The banking sector is experiencing rapid growth in social financing driven by government financing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in social financing scale balance as of April [11][12] - The report notes that the marginal growth of loans is slowing, with the total new loans in April being 844 billion yuan, the lowest for the same period in recent years [12][13] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, with a focus on optimizing the structure of credit distribution [13][14]