NTES(US:NTES) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-16 05:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Inc. (NTES) with a 12-month price target of $140.00, indicating an upside potential of 30.7% from the current price of $107.11 [1]. Core Insights - NetEase reported a strong performance in 1Q25, with game revenue increasing by 15% year-over-year (yoy) and operating profit rising by 34% yoy, alleviating concerns regarding its legacy and mobile games [1][22]. - The growth is expected to continue due to the success of newly released titles, a recovery in legacy titles, and improved promotional strategies [1][18]. - The report anticipates low to mid-teens yoy game revenue growth and further margin expansion for the remainder of 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, PC games revenue surged by 84% yoy, driven by successful titles such as Marvel Rivals and Where Wind Meets, alongside contributions from Blizzard games [2][22]. - Historical profit margins are at a high due to disciplined expense management and sequential gross profit margin (GPM) expansion [3]. Revenue and Earnings Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025E have been revised upwards by 1.3% to 114,803.9 million RMB, with net profit estimates increased by 10.4% to 38,685.9 million RMB [20][21]. - The report projects a total revenue growth of 9.0% for 2025, with EBITDA growth of 18.6% and EPS growth of 16.6% [12]. Game Pipeline and Strategy - NetEase is focusing on a globalization strategy, with plans to release more titles targeting international markets, particularly in the PVP genre [17][25]. - Key upcoming titles include Marvel Mystic Mayhem and Destiny: Rising, with a focus on competitive gameplay to leverage R&D expertise [25][38]. Market Position and Valuation - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 14X for 2025E, which is considered a discount compared to peers and historical averages [18]. - The report highlights that international games revenue is expected to grow to 12.6% of total revenue by 2025E, driven by new global titles [33].