2025 年 11 月 23 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： | 证券分析师: | | --- | | | 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 游戏长线运营能力突出，递延收入高增为后续业 绩释放奠定基础 ——网易-S（9999.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 网易-S | -14.8% | 0.5% | 53.6% | | 恒生指数 | -3.1% | 0.5% | 28.7% | | 市场数据 | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 204.60 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 129.40-248.00 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 647,761.84 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 647,761.84 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Unity and Epic Games announced a strategic partnership to create an open and interoperable ecosystem for game engines, allowing developers to publish Unity games on the Fortnite platform with over 500 million registered accounts, enhancing user reach and commercialization efficiency [2][21] - NVIDIA's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, with data center revenue growing by 289% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure [3][22] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors, driven by consumption policies and technological empowerment [3][22] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with 134.67 million yuan (42.9% market share), "Wild Era" with 75.67 million yuan (24.1%), and "Now You See Me 3" with 55.44 million yuan (17.7%) [23][24] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Teamfight Tactics," "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," and "Honor of Kings," while the top three Android games are "Heart Town," "Sword and Magic Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [25] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcasting index are "Tang Dynasty Ghost Stories: Chang'an," "Four Happiness," and "Phoenix Platform," with indices of 85.5, 82.4, and 81.8 respectively [26][27] Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcasting index of 82.4, followed by "Wonderful Night Season 2" and "Flowers and Youth Together" [28][29] - The top three animated shows by viewership index are "Xian Ni" with 212.8, "Happy Hammer" with 191.6, and "Swallowing the Starry Sky" with 187.2 [30]

Group 1 - The company's revenue increased by 8.2% year-on-year to 28.36 billion yuan, which was 3% lower than Bloomberg's expectations [1] - Gross margin was 64.1%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Adjusted net profit margin reached 33.5%, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8 percentage points, with adjusted net profit growing by 26.7% year-on-year to 9.5 billion yuan, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations by 0.6% [1] Group 2 - Self-developed games performed well, generating revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, which was 2.3% lower than Bloomberg's expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - The revenue growth was driven by titles such as "Dream of the Red Chamber" PC version, "Egg Party," and new releases like "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Showdown" [1] - The gross margin for the gaming segment was 69.3%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.6 percentage points, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Cloud Music achieved revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, which was 3.0% lower than Bloomberg's expectations, with a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [2] - Gross margin for Cloud Music was 35.4%, falling short of Bloomberg's expectations by 0.6 percentage points, but showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points [2] - Youdao reported revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, which was 1.7% lower than Bloomberg's expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [2] Group 4 - The company expects adjusted net profit growth of 18.4%, 8.8%, and 8.6% for 2025-2027, reaching 39.7 billion, 43.2 billion, and 46.2 billion yuan respectively [2] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 14.9, 13.7, and 12.6 [2]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 8% to 28.4 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit rose by 27% to 9.5 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to unrecognized revenue from some products and higher-than-expected marketing expenses [1] - The company declared a dividend of $0.114 per share and extended its share repurchase program of up to $5 billion until January 2029, having repurchased $2 billion by the end of Q3 2025 [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue from games and value-added services grew by 12%, driven by flagship products such as "Dream of Dreams" and "Egg Party," showcasing the company's long-term game operation capabilities [1] - Marketing expenses increased by 17% to 4.46 billion yuan, primarily due to seasonal promotional activities and new version marketing for flagship products, leading to a significant increase in deferred revenue [1] Investment and New Game Releases - The company achieved investment income of 1.38 billion yuan, which helped offset the impact of increased marketing expenses on profits [1] - New games "Destiny: Stars" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are set to launch in overseas and Chinese markets, with the former nominated for the 2025 TGA Best Mobile Game [1] - The company plans to focus on global capabilities and the progress of key new games, with several titles in the pipeline for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current valuations at 16/15x for Hong Kong stocks and 15/14x for U.S. stocks for 2025/2026 Non-GAAP P/E [2] - The company retains an outperform rating and a target price of 275 HKD / 177 USD, indicating an upside potential of 29% for Hong Kong stocks and 33% for U.S. stocks [2]

分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《全球领先的游戏巨头，多元业务并举》 2025-11-05 证券研究报告 游戏Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.11.22 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-11-21 | | 收盘价(元) | 204.60 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 31.68 | | 每股净资产(元) | 45.40 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -3% 15% 32% 50% 68% 86% 网易-S 恒生指数 自研游戏表现亮眼，关注明年新游上线 网易-S(09999) ❖ 事件：公司收入同比增长 8.2%为 283.6 亿元（低于彭博预期 3%），毛利率 64.1%（高出彭博预期 0.1pct），销售费用率 15.7%（较彭博预期高 2.1pct）， 管理费用率 4.1%（较彭博预期高 0.3pct），研发费用率 16.0%（较彭博预期 高 0.3pct），在投资收益增长、汇兑损失减少的带动下，经调整归母净利率达 33.5%（超彭博预期 0.8pct），经调整归母净利 ...

2025 年 11 月 22 日 公司研究 游戏营收低于预期，递延收入高增，关注 2026 年新游表现 ——网易-S（9999.HK）2025 年三季报业绩点评 要点 业绩点评：25Q3 公司实现营收 283.6 亿元，同比增长 8.2%，低于彭博一致 预期（下文简称一致预期）2.96%，主要受产品上线节奏及收入确认时滞影响。 毛利率 64.1%，同比提升 1.2pcts；经调整净利润 95.5 亿元，略高于一致预 期 0.43%，虽然营销和管理费用超预期，但 SBC 费用调整弥补了利润的缺口。 短期换挡承压不改长期趋势，递延收入大增蓄势充足。25Q3 公司短期递延收 入达 194.7 亿元，同比增长 25.3%，环比增长 14.8%，大幅超一致预期 41% （预期 137.8 亿元），新游戏上线期间玩家充值付费意愿强劲，收入随游戏内 容消耗进度逐步确认，为 25Q4 及 26Q1 营收增长奠定坚实基础。 游戏业务保持稳健增长，存量业务展现长期价值，全球化战略持续兑现。Q3 游戏及相关增值服务收入 233.3 亿元，低于一致预期 2.3%，同比增长 11.8%， 其中在线游戏收入 232.4 亿元。1）国内游 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent withdrawal of NetEase games from OPPO's app store highlights a growing tension between game developers and traditional Android distribution channels, primarily due to high revenue sharing models that limit profit margins for developers [1][4][15]. Group 1: Game Withdrawal from OPPO - NetEase games, including popular titles like "Onmyoji: Yokai House" and "Fantasy Westward Journey," will cease operations on OPPO channels starting from November 2024, with a complete withdrawal expected by October 2025 [1]. - This trend of withdrawing from OPPO channels began last year and reflects a broader industry shift away from traditional Android distribution methods [1][4]. Group 2: Revenue Sharing Issues - The high revenue sharing model, often referred to as "Android tax," has become a critical issue for game developers, with reports indicating that Android channels take up to 50% of revenue, significantly higher than the 30% typically charged by platforms like Apple's App Store [6][15]. - The "hardcore alliance" established by major Android manufacturers in 2014 set a standard revenue share of 50% for game developers, which has persisted in the industry [8]. Group 3: Alternative Distribution Models - Developers are increasingly exploring alternative distribution methods, such as using platforms like TapTap, which do not charge revenue shares, allowing for greater profitability [10][12]. - Successful titles like "Genshin Impact" and "Awakening of Nations" have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve significant revenue without relying on traditional Android channels [12][14]. Group 4: Industry Evolution - The gaming industry is transitioning from a "traffic-driven" model to a "content-driven" model, where the quality of the game itself becomes the primary factor in attracting users [14]. - Despite the shift, the costs associated with customer acquisition through alternative channels have increased, as seen in NetEase's substantial advertising expenditures [14][15].

11月20日，网易（Nasdaq：NTES、HKEX：9999）发布截至9月30日的2025年第三季度财报，该季度公 司净营收为284亿元，同比增长8.2%；利润也同比增加，归属于网易公司股东的净利润为86亿元，上年 同期为65亿元。而不按美国通用会计准则，归属于网易公司股东的净利润为95亿元，上年同期为75亿 元。 按业务划分，第三季度网易的游戏及相关增值服务净收入为233亿元，同比增加11.8%；网易有道净收 入为16亿元，同比增加3.6%；网易云音乐净收入为20亿元，同比减少1.8%；创新及其他业务净收入为 14亿元，同比减少18.9%。 然而，关于具体技术细节与落地场景，丁磊并未展开说明。据了解，网易有道在"AI原生"战略深化与业 务结构聚焦的推动下，2025年前三季度累计经营利润同比增长近150%，在线营销服务净收入与AI订阅 服务销售额均创历史新高。 （文章来源：中国经营报） "对于现有的长青项目，我们要求团队持续优化、精益求精；对于具备长青潜力的新项目，我们将重点 投入、加大支持，不断打磨产品品质。同时，对于未能跟上市场节奏和用户需求的团队，我们会果断调 整，确保主干业务的茁壮成长。"丁磊说。 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者于玉金 北京报道 长青游戏成为本季度驱动网易营收增长的主要力量。网易11月20日晚间发布财报，2025年Q3，公司实 现净收入284亿元，同比增长8.2%；非公认会计准则下，归属于公司股东的净利润为95亿元，同比增长 33.3%。 而在丁磊重回一线后，其工作室的调整持续进行，同时也不断有人员流动。对此，丁磊在11月20日晚间 的财报电话会议上表示，人员流动属正常组织调整，是在不影响公司日常游戏运营的前提下进行的，目 的是让整个组织变得更加专注、高效，从而集中力量打造长青和精品的网易游戏。 《梦幻西游》在线人数创新高 网易2025年Q3净收入为284亿元，上一季度和去年同期分别为279亿元和262亿元。 2025年Q3游戏及相关增值服务净收入为233亿元，上一季度和去年同期分别为228亿元和209亿元。本季 度，来自在线游戏的净收入约占该分部净收入的97.6%，上一季度和去年同期该占比分别为97.1%和 96.8%。 网易在财报中表示，今年Q3在线游戏净收入环比增长来自于《梦幻西游》电脑版、《逆水寒》手游等 自研游戏及若干代理游戏净收入增加。其同比增加来自《梦幻西游 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices reversed their downward trend, with all three major indices closing up by approximately 1% on November 21 [4][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.08% to 46,245.41 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.98% to 6,602.99 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.88% to 22,273.08 points [4] - Weekly performance showed all three indices had declined, with the Nasdaq down 2.74%, the Dow down 1.91%, and the S&P 500 down 1.95% [4] Technology Sector - The decline in technology stocks narrowed, with the US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 0.71% [5] - Nvidia's stock fluctuated, initially dropping over 4% before recovering to a gain of 1.9%, while Google surged by 3.35% [5] - Year-to-date performance for major tech stocks showed Nvidia down 0.94%, Apple up 1.97%, and Google up 3.35% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.23%, with notable gains in NIO (over 3%), Beike, Li Auto, and Tencent Music (over 2%) [5] - Year-to-date performance for key Chinese stocks included Alibaba down 0.20%, Netease down 0.28%, and JD.com up 1.94% [7] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rebounded above $4,100 per ounce, closing at $4,064.279 per ounce [2][9] - The gold market experienced volatility, with a weekly decline of 0.44% [9] Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential interest rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 39.1% to approximately 70% [2][14] - Comments from Fed officials, including Williams, suggested a dovish stance, supporting the notion of a rate cut due to current economic conditions [13][16] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December is expected to be contentious, with differing opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a rate cut [17][18]