RSPC(SZ:002493) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-16 07:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refining industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in the company's performance in Q1 2025. The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 588 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62%, and a non-recurring net profit of 618 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 736.04% [6][38] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 352.59 billion yuan, 370.22 billion yuan, and 388.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan, and 6.26 billion yuan respectively. The expected EPS for the same period is 0.19 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 45.0, 21.4, and 14.1 times [6][39] Summary by Sections 1. Refining Industry Recovery - The refining industry's profitability is on the rise, with the crude oil cracking margin stabilizing and improving from a low point in Q4 2024. The average cracking margin was 1,231 yuan/ton in Q4 2024 and increased to 1,452 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, with further improvement expected in Q2 2025 [16][28] 2. Policy Impact on Fuel Oil - Recent policies regarding fuel oil, including an increase in import tariffs and changes in consumption tax deductions, are expected to pressure marginal refining capacities, leading to a gradual exit of less efficient players from the market. This could enhance the profitability of remaining players [7][28][29] 3. Company’s Integrated Operations - Rongsheng Petrochemical is a leading producer in polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins. The company has a globally leading integrated refining capacity, processing 40 million tons of crude oil annually, and has strengthened its market position through strategic partnerships, particularly with Saudi Aramco [31][34] 4. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting the current oil prices and refining industry conditions. The company is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, supported by its comprehensive product matrix and cost control capabilities [39][41]