RSPC(002493) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-16 10:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refining industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in the company's performance in Q1 2025. The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 588 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62%, and a non-recurring net profit of 618 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 736.04% [6][38] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 352.59 billion yuan, 370.22 billion yuan, and 388.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan, and 6.26 billion yuan respectively. The expected EPS for the same period is 0.19 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 45.0, 21.4, and 14.1 times [6][39] Summary by Sections 1. Refining Industry Recovery - The crude oil cracking margin reached a low point in Q4 2024 but stabilized and began to recover in 2025. The average cracking margin was 1,231 yuan/ton in Q4 2024 and increased to 1,452 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, with further improvement expected in Q2 2025 [16][39] 2. Policy Impact on Fuel Oil - New policies regarding fuel oil have been introduced, including an increase in the import tax rate from 1% to 3% starting January 1, 2025. This is expected to increase processing costs for companies reliant on imported fuel oil, potentially leading to a gradual exit of marginal refining capacity from the industry [7][28] 3. Company’s Integrated Operations - Rongsheng Petrochemical is a leading producer of polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins. The company has a globally leading integrated refining capacity, processing 40 million tons of crude oil annually. Strategic cooperation with Saudi Aramco has further solidified its market position [31][34] 4. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2025 downwards while introducing new forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The expected revenue and net profit figures indicate a strong recovery trajectory for the company, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [39]