Yifeng Pharmary(603939) 浙商证券·2025-05-16 10:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in net profit margin in 2025, following a significant adjustment phase in its store operations [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% year-on-year [1][4] - The company has a robust store expansion strategy, with 2,512 new stores added in 2024, which is anticipated to drive long-term revenue growth [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.843 billion yuan, a 2.14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 418 million yuan, up 1.28% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 6.009 billion yuan, a 0.64% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 449 million yuan, up 10.51% year-on-year [1] Growth Potential - The company added 94 new stores in Q1 2025, with a net increase of 10 stores compared to the end of 2024, indicating a potential slowdown in store closures [2] - The company has a wide coverage of medical insurance qualifications, with 10,300 out of 10,872 direct chain stores qualified, which is expected to enhance its ability to capture market opportunities from prescription outflow [2] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 40.12%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for traditional Chinese medicine and non-drug products also showing improvements [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.87%, a slight decrease, but it is projected to recover to 8.21% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3] Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 26.920 billion yuan, 30.834 billion yuan, and 34.079 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 11.88%, 14.54%, and 10.53% [4][10] - The expected net profit for the same period is 1.758 billion yuan, 2.092 billion yuan, and 2.333 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.00%, 19.00%, and 11.53% respectively [4][10]