KELUN PHARMA(002422)2025-05-16 13:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous breakthroughs in innovative drugs and synthetic biology commercialization, indicating an upward turning point in operations and performance driven by innovation, with potential valuation uplift from ongoing global clinical data for SKB264 [1][5] - The first quarter of 2025 showed significant revenue and profit declines primarily due to high base effects from the previous year and price fluctuations [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.812 billion yuan (YOY +1.67%) and a net profit of 2.936 billion yuan (YOY +19.53%) [1][11] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 4.390 billion yuan (YOY -29.42%) and net profit was 0.584 billion yuan (YOY -43.07%) [1][11] Business Segmentation - The intravenous infusion segment saw a revenue decline to 8.912 billion yuan in 2024 (YOY -11.85%), while the sales volume was 4.347 billion bags/bottles (YOY -0.70%) [2] - Non-infusion pharmaceuticals generated revenue of 4.169 billion yuan in 2024 (YOY +5.41%), with significant contributions from the plastic water needle business [3] - The intermediates and raw materials segment reported revenue of 5.856 billion yuan in 2024 (YOY +20.90%), driven by various antibiotic intermediates [4] Innovation and Commercialization - The company has over 30 projects in development, with several innovative drugs like SKB264 and A167 successfully approved in China, indicating a shift towards accelerated commercialization [5] - The internationalization efforts for SKB264 are expected to yield significant milestones, with potential revenue exceeding 1.2 billion USD from overseas licensing agreements [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.88, 2.11, and 2.54 yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 19 times based on the closing price on May 15, 2025 [11][13] - The company is expected to benefit from its innovative drug technology platform and synthetic biology platform, contributing to sustainable performance growth [11]