铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Silicon manganese maintains a trend of production - cut pricing, with the pressure of high supply alleviated, but supply still exceeds demand due to weak downstream demand. There is still high - inventory pressure, though there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as short - sellers take profits and exit. Ningxia's silicon - iron production area has cut production, with inventory reduction and an increase in warehouse - receipt registration. High hot - metal demand in the downstream still provides some support, but the high - inventory pattern of ferroalloys remains unchanged. In the short term, the macro - optimistic sentiment has cooled, and ferroalloys are expected to show bottom - range fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 6.9% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 27.9% [2] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging 3.2.1 Inventory Management - Behavior orientation: Manage inventory when finished - product inventory is high and worried about ferroalloy price decline [2] - Spot exposure: Long [2] - Strategy recommendation: Short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory [2] - Hedging tools: SF2509, SM2509 [2] - Buying/selling direction: Sell [2] - Hedging ratio: 15% [2] - Recommended entry range: SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - Behavior orientation: Manage procurement when the regular inventory for procurement is low and want to purchase according to orders [2] - Spot exposure: Short [2] - Strategy recommendation: Buy ferroalloy futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] - Hedging tools: SF2509, SM2509 [2] - Buying/selling direction: Buy [2] - Hedging ratio: 25% [2] - Recommended entry range: SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Silicon manganese: Maintains production - cut pricing, high - supply pressure eases, but supply still exceeds demand. There is high - inventory pressure, and there may be a short - term rebound [3] - Silicon iron: Ningxia's production area cuts production, inventory decreases, and warehouse - receipt registration increases. High hot - metal demand provides support, but the high - inventory pattern remains [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - High hot - metal demand supports silicon - iron demand [7] - Silicon iron has fallen continuously, and its low valuation may lead to a rebound [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty and improve market sentiment [7] - Silicon - iron factory inventory decreases, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [7] 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese -开工率 and production decline, producers' losses increase, and the willingness to cut production strengthens, with some areas shutting down for maintenance [7] - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty and improve market sentiment [7] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) 3.5.1 Silicon Iron - Silicon - iron inventory is at a high level, and the slow recovery of market demand compared to supply growth suppresses prices [8] 3.5.2 Silicon Manganese - Silicon - manganese factory inventory continues to accumulate, with a month - on - month increase of 13.9% as of May 11 [9] - High factory inventory and high warehouse receipts increase the total inventory, and the oversupply situation suppresses price increases [9] 3.6 Daily Data 3.6.1 Silicon Iron - Data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantity, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [10] 3.6.2 Silicon Manganese - Data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantity, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [11]