Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-16 14:22Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The current market has entered the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, and there is a competition in the market regarding the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The reduction in India's production and the increase in Thailand's production are already facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixed powder and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market has mainly been trading on the expectation of Brazilian sugar production increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 48.2% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price decline, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6000 - 6030, and sell call options (SR507C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 60 [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5850 - 5870, and sell put options (SR507P5800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The main contradiction in the current sugar market is the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production during the new crushing season, while the situations in India and Thailand are relatively stable, and the domestic situation has little change after relevant restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing [4]. 3.3 Bullish Factors - As of the end of March, the national sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons (26.64%), and the cumulative sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster year - on - year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than the same period last year. The cane crushed was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) compared to the same period last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) compared to the same period last year. The final output may be less than 26 million tons [5]. - China has suspended the import of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - As of May 6, 37 sugar mills in Yunnan have completed the crushing process, 8 less than the same period last year. The crushing capacity of the completed mills is 134,400 tons per day, a decrease of 24,600 tons per day compared to the same period last year. 15 sugar mills have not completed the crushing, and the planned crushing time has been postponed due to rainfall [5]. - In the second half of April in the central - southern region of Brazil, 17.725 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year decrease of 49.35%. The sugar production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.79%, and the ethanol production decreased by 35.37% to 985 million liters. The sugar - to - cane ratio was 45.82%, compared with 44.22% in the previous season. The crushing volume was lower than expected due to rainfall in late April [5]. 3.4 Bearish Factors - Starting from May 9, there has been a lot of rainfall in Guangxi, alleviating the previous drought situation [12]. - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/2026 crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [12]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/2025 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [12]. 3.5 Sugar Price Data - Spot Price: On May 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6120, down 20 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Liuzhou, it was 6160, down 10 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Kunming, it was 5910, down 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; in Rizhao, it was 6260, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [10]. - Futures Price: On May 16, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5723, with a daily decline of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SR03 was 5693, with a daily decline of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 0.25%; SR05 was 6000, with a daily decline of 1.15% and a weekly decline of 0.78%; SR07 was 5936, with a daily decline of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.2%; SR09 was 5855, with a daily decline of 0.53% and a weekly increase of 0.27%; SR11 was 5774, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 0.23% [9]. - Import Price: On May 16, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4919, up 65 from the previous day and up 33 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6264, up 85 from the previous day and up 44 from the previous week. The in - quota import price of Thai sugar was 4884, up 65 from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6218, up 85 from the previous day and up 52 from the previous week [11].