Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-16 14:23Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro - atmosphere has improved, and with unplanned maintenance, the futures market has rapidly rebounded. In the medium - to - long - term, the price of styrene is still dragged down by pure benzene and is expected to decline. The future market trend depends on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene). It also depends on the improvement of gasoline blending demand in the US and the impact of the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation units on China's pure benzene imports [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7400 - 8000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.8% [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high and worried about price decline, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, and sell call options (EB2507C8000) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 80 - 120 [2] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and aiming to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7450 - 7550 yuan/ton, and sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 50 - 80 [2] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward movement of styrene is due to improved macro - atmosphere and unplanned maintenance, while the long - term downward pressure comes from pure benzene. Future trends depend on downstream demand improvement after tariff reduction and the situation of US gasoline blending demand and its impact on pure benzene imports [3] 利多解读 - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory drawdown and tightened spot liquidity [4] - The smooth progress of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks and the significant tariff reduction in the first - round consultation have improved market sentiment [4] - On Tuesday, Hengli's cracking unit had a sudden failure, leading to the early maintenance of its 720,000 - ton styrene unit for a month, intensifying the shortage of styrene. There are also rumors that Zhejiang Petrochemical's styrene unit may start maintenance a few days earlier [4] 利空解读 - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the pure benzene imports from May to June are expected to remain high [7] - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many units of caprolactam and aniline in downstream industries planning maintenance in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7] - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain remains high [7] - The downstream 3S products have limited price - increasing power, and there is no obvious improvement in terminal orders after the tariff reduction, resulting in limited enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials [8] Styrene Basis and Price Changes - The basis of East China - EB05 decreased from 43 to 39 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB06 increased from 251 to 329 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 78 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB07 increased from 413 to 486 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 73 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB08 increased from 530 to 598 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 68 yuan/ton [8] - The prices of various products in the styrene and related industries on May 16, 2025, showed different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week, such as the price of pure benzene in the East China market decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the price of styrene in the East China market decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9][10]