申万宏源策略一周回顾展望:主动公募向业绩比较基准靠拢:不低估长期影响,不高估短期影响

Group 1 - Short-term macro expectations are unlikely to change direction, maintaining the judgment that the second quarter will be a high central oscillation market. The mid-term A-share fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, and it is insufficient to support a breakout in A-shares [4][5][6] - The active public funds are aligning with performance benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of not underestimating long-term impacts while not overestimating short-term effects. The adjustment of performance benchmarks for public funds is seen as an opportunity to consolidate product strategies [5][6][7] - In the active equity products, 77% of the scale is based on broad-based indices, and 42% is based on the CSI 300. Future performance benchmarks need to clarify product positioning, investment strategies, and investment styles [6][7][8] Group 2 - The market is currently discussing the long-term impact of the public fund quality development action plan, which has become a major clue for short-term structural trends. The alignment of holdings with performance benchmarks is not necessarily a universal trend [5][6][7] - The public fund's performance indicators are generally showing cyclical fluctuations and are currently at a bottom area. The next two years may see a gradual recovery in public fund profitability and an increase in the proportion of profitable clients [7][8] - The report highlights that low-valuation, high-dividend assets benefiting from public fund reforms are currently in a low cost-performance area. The technology sector remains a relatively high cost-performance direction compared to consumption, with a strategic focus on the domestic AI industry chain and embodied intelligence investment opportunities [8][9]