中国化学（601117）：如何看中国化学己二腈项目的盈利空间？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The domestic production of adiponitrile is accelerating, and the demand for civilian nylon is expected to be released, indicating a broad growth space in the future. Nylon 66, one of the most widely used nylon products, has a low application ratio in civilian yarns (13%), which could potentially replace the nylon 6 market if technological breakthroughs occur [1][12] - The company has successfully overcome significant technical barriers in adiponitrile production, making it the first project in China with independent intellectual property rights to produce adiponitrile on a large scale using the direct hydrogenation method [1][12] - The project is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic adiponitrile production and the increase in demand for civilian yarns [1][12] Summary by Sections Production Cost and Profitability - The estimated cost of producing adiponitrile is approximately 11,600 CNY per ton, with the main raw materials being butadiene, natural gas, and liquid ammonia [2][16] - The break-even price for the company's adiponitrile project is estimated at 17,700 CNY per ton at 150% capacity utilization and 19,000 CNY per ton at 100% capacity utilization [3][17] - The projected net profit for the company is expected to be 3.62 billion CNY at full capacity and 7.64 billion CNY after technical upgrades [3][19] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.4 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.1 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.4%, and 11.2% [3][19] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 7.5, 6.6, and 6.0 times, respectively [3][19] Market Context - The global capacity for adiponitrile production is currently dominated by American companies, with significant reliance on imports. The domestic market is expected to shift towards local production to ensure supply chain security [1][12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing domestic demand and the potential for market share growth in the nylon 66 sector [1][12]