锌产业链周度报告：有色及贵金属-20250518

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is weak [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logic of marginal increase in mine supply is gradually being realized, and the inventory of zinc concentrates at smelters and ports is relatively abundant. After some smelters resume production in May, the surplus logic may become more obvious [6] - The consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and the hedging effect of rush - export orders is limited. The downstream galvanizing sector's开工率 has decreased significantly, and downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices [6] - The expected increase in long - term supply and imports may confirm the inflection point of social inventory. The zinc market is expected to remain weak in the medium and long term. The spread between near - term contracts is under pressure to converge, and lending can be held. Long - short positions between domestic and foreign zinc prices can continue to be held [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - Price and Price Change: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,500, with a weekly increase of 1.40%, and the closing price of last night's session was 22,425, with a decline of 0.33%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,686, with a weekly increase of 1.90% [7] - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 118,189, a decrease of 21,828 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 94,346, a decrease of 24,824. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 5,141, a decrease of 1,226, and the open interest was 224,623, an increase of 11,453 [7] - Inventory Changes: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 272 to 2,175; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 751 to 46,351; social inventory increased by 3,000 to 86,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,125 to 164,200; bonded area inventory decreased by 500 to 7,100 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot's visible inventory is relatively low [9] - Profit: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit has recovered to a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - Operating Rate: Zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; refined zinc monthly operating rate has rebounded to a high level in the same period; downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc operating rates have decreased and are at historically medium - low levels [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - Spot: Spot premium has slightly declined from a high level. Overseas premium is relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [16][17] - Spread: SHFE zinc shows a B structure in the near - term and is relatively flat in the far - term [19] - Inventory: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short term and is at a historical medium level. LME off - warrant inventory is related to CASH - 3M [20][30] - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [33] 4. Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees for domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium - high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [37][38] - Refined Zinc: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has also marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [39][42] 5. Zinc Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [47] - Downstream Operating Rate: The monthly operating rate of downstream industries has slightly recovered, and most are at historically medium - low levels compared to the same period [50] - Terminal Demand: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 6. Overseas Factors - The report provides data on European electricity prices, natural gas futures prices, and EU carbon quota prices, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [60]