Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices moving sideways at the bottom [3] - Low production of recycled lead continues, and lead ingot inventories are accumulating [4] - It is expected that from May to mid - June, downstream demand will be weak, and there will be significant upward pressure. However, the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large, and prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, low - level buying operations can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,915 yuan/ton, with an overnight increase of 0.27%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,944.5 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.41% [6] - Transaction and Position Changes: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 32,484 lots, an increase of 3,529 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 28,562 lots, a decrease of 4,892 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 3,624 lots, an increase of 829 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 146,138 lots, a decrease of 3,586 lots [6] - Spread Changes: The LME lead spot premium last Friday was - 4.45 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.14 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6] - Inventory Changes: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 49,921 tons, an increase of 10,955 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 56,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons compared to the previous week [6] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume and domestic production of lead concentrate showed certain trends from 2021 - 2025. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuated during this period. The import and domestic processing fees and profits of lead concentrate had corresponding changes [24][25] - Primary Lead: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 showed different trends. The production of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid also had corresponding changes [26][27] - Recycled Lead: The production of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 showed certain trends. The price of waste batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead, and the raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises also had corresponding changes [28] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - Lead - Acid Batteries: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2025 showed different trends [32] - End - Users: The production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 showed certain trends, and the actual consumption of lead also had corresponding changes [34]
铅产业链周度报告-20250518