BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-18 10:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.60 yuan [2][9]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 10.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.437 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.50% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 35.31% [2][9]. - The report highlights the stabilization of coal prices and the downward trend in oil prices, indicating a potential clearing of risks. The company is expected to benefit from its upstream coal chemical projects, particularly in Xinjiang, which may significantly enhance profitability once operational [2][9]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 32.983 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.2%. By 2025, revenue is expected to rise to 46.268 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 40.3% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.338 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.2%, and is expected to reach 13.177 billion yuan in 2025, showing a significant growth rate of 107.9% [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 1.80 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 in 2024 and 9 in 2025 [4][10]. Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported sales volumes of polyethylene, polypropylene, and EVA at 51460, 49150, and 4710 tons respectively, with significant quarter-on-quarter increases [2][9]. - The report notes that the average procurement price of raw coal was approximately 494 yuan per ton in Q1, down by 91 yuan from the previous quarter, indicating a favorable cost environment for production [2][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's Xinjiang coal chemical projects will accelerate in construction due to increasing energy security concerns, with potential net profit contributions of approximately 12 billion yuan once operational [2][9]. - The company is expected to enter an upward profit cycle as oil price risks clear, with a projected net profit of 13.177 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 9 [2][9].