TSMC(US:TSM) Guotou Securities·2025-05-18 14:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the semiconductor and electronics industry [5]. Core Insights - TSMC has entered stable mass production of its 3nm process and plans to ramp up 2nm production in the second half of the year, with significant expansions in packaging capacity to meet the growing demand for AI-related chips [1]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $683 billion in 2024, representing a 25% year-on-year growth, with NVIDIA's revenue increasing by 118.6%, surpassing Intel as the largest chip manufacturer [3]. - The electronics sector is experiencing high valuation levels, with an overall PE ratio of 49.88, placing it in the 65.8th percentile of the past decade [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronics index experienced a slight decline of 0.75% during the week ending May 16, 2025, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors [32]. - The overall PE ratio for the electronics sector is 49.88, with the semiconductor sub-sector at 82.01, indicating high investor interest in companies capable of domestic substitution and AI computing [4][33]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Xiaomi Group, focusing on semiconductor domestic substitution and AI terminal supply chains [9]. - Xiaomi's self-developed SoC chip "Xuanjie O1" is set to launch, utilizing TSMC's 4nm process, marking a significant advancement in domestic high-end chip manufacturing [2]. Market Trends - The semiconductor market is undergoing structural changes, with traditional analog manufacturers falling out of the top ten, while companies like SK Hynix are experiencing near doubling in revenue [3]. - The demand for third-generation semiconductors, particularly silicon carbide (SiC), is expected to rise due to rapid growth in electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors [18]. Recent Developments - TSMC plans to add nine new factories starting in 2024 across Taiwan, Japan, the US, and Germany to support the increasing demand for AI-related chips [1]. - The domestic production of new energy vehicles saw a significant increase, with production rising from 882,900 units last year to 1,236,800 units in March 2025 [17].