远兴能源（000683）：行业底部凸显盈利韧性，兼具高成长与高分红

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights the company's resilience in profitability at the industry bottom, showcasing both high growth and high dividend potential [2][7] - The company reported a total revenue of 132.64 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, with a total expected payout of 1.116 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 61.6% and a current dividend yield of 5.8% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 12.325 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 1.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.5% [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 33.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.8% [6] - The company’s market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company produced 9.08 million tons of various products in 2024, with significant increases in the production of soda ash and sodium bicarbonate due to the full capacity operation of its subsidiary [7] - The first phase of the Alashan natural soda project has reached full production capacity, contributing significantly to revenue and profit [7] - The second phase of the project is expected to start construction in December 2023, with an estimated investment of 5.5 billion yuan and completion anticipated by the end of 2025 [7] Price Trends and Cost Management - The report notes a decline in the average prices of key products such as soda ash and urea, with year-on-year decreases of 34.76% and 21.21% respectively in Q1 2025 [7] - The company has managed to reduce its total expenses, with a total of 327 million yuan in selling and administrative expenses in Q1 2025, down from the previous year [7]