国能日新年报点评 —— 25Q1开始加速，乐观看待未来成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, growing by 11.1% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit of 16.61 million CNY, up 34.6% [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the distributed power station business and effective cost control measures [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 26.9%, 20.5%, 38.0%, 48.4%, and 22.2% [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 11.1%, 61.5%, 57.7%, and 27.9% [3][12]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3][12]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates revenue from various business segments, including 310 million CNY from power prediction products (+15.6%), 124 million CNY from grid control systems (+28.1%), and 52.49 million CNY from new energy management systems (+17.8%) [8]. - The Q1 2025 revenue growth is significantly influenced by the rapid increase in income from distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and the growing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which will likely enhance its customer base and business growth in 2025 and 2026 [8].