恒立液压：挖机带动主业回暖，线性驱动器带来新增长点-20250519

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% within six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [4][5]. - The excavator market is showing signs of recovery, with a total of 201,100 excavators sold in 2024, marking a 3.13% increase, and domestic sales rising by 11.7% [6]. - The linear actuator project has entered mass production, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities for the company [6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 9.39 billion yuan, with a breakdown of product revenues as follows: hydraulic cylinders (4.76 billion yuan), hydraulic pumps and motors (3.58 billion yuan), hydraulic systems (296 million yuan), and parts and castings (684 million yuan) [5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.47%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased by 4.77 percentage points to 14.96% [5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 10.44 billion yuan, 11.63 billion yuan, and 12.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.76 billion yuan, 3.13 billion yuan, and 3.56 billion yuan [7][9]. Market Trends - The excavator market is expected to continue its upward trend, with sales in the first four months of 2025 reaching 83,500 units, a 21.4% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company is actively pursuing its electrification strategy, with significant investments in the linear actuator project, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive position in the market [6].