CGWS(SZ:002939) Great Wall Securities·2025-05-19 06:28Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate indicates a cautious approach, with no signs of economic slowdown observed [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut have diminished, with Goldman Sachs pushing back its forecast for a rate cut to December 2025 [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China remain critical, with high uncertainty in key sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Strategy - The focus for 2025 is on expanding domestic demand and consumption, as emphasized in the April Politburo meeting [2] - Policies to support consumption include financial backing for service consumption and the removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector [2] - Key sectors expected to benefit from these policies include home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should align with the direction of incremental policy support and self-sufficiency [3] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having relative valuation advantages, particularly in home appliances, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals [3][4] - Short-term opportunities are identified in service and retail sectors, while a cautious approach towards external risks is advised, suggesting a focus on defensive assets [4] Group 4: Technology and Self-Sufficiency - Emphasis on technology and self-sufficiency as a core defense against external risks, with a focus on domestic alternatives in sectors like semiconductors and emerging industries [4] - Areas of interest include consumer electronics and healthcare, driven by domestic demand [4]